In Swing States Majorities of Rs and Ds Oppose Raising All Tariffs to 10-20%

Prefer Keeping Low Tariffs With Countries that Abide by Trade Rules, While Keeping High Tariffs on China

October 3, 2024 – As major proposals to change US international trade policy have come into the discourse, a new public consultation survey by the Program for Public Consultation finds bipartisan majorities of Americans in six swing states as well as nationally, support the US continuing to have low tariffs with other countries on a mutual basis, so long as they abide by agreed-upon rules.

This survey is the eighth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and nationally, on major policy issues. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.

Director of the Program for Public Consultation, Steven Kull, comments, “While Americans do support the tariff increases targeted at China, bipartisan majorities oppose an across-the-board tariff increase. Large bipartisan majorities support the US continuing to be part of the international agreements for low tariffs within a rules-based system.”

International Trade System of Low Tariffs

Since World War II, the US has been actively working to promote international trade through a system in which countries negotiate to lower their tariffs on a mutual basis, provided each country abides by agreed-upon rules. The US has such trade arrangements with almost all countries – through free trade agreements and the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs. As a result, average tariffs globally have decreased from about 22% in the 1940’s to about 2% today.

Bipartisan majorities in all swing states (80-85%) approve of the US working with other countries to continue this system, including majorities of Republicans (73-78%) and Democrats (86-93%). Nationally, 81% approve (Republicans 74%, Democrats 88%).

Responses to Pro and Con Arguments

ARGUMENT IN FAVOR
International trade has played a key role in the growth of the American economy and the world economy. It has been a major factor in the unprecedented rise in the standard of living over the last 70 years. With foreign markets more open, US producers can increase their production to sell to them. When markets are more open to imported goods, consumers benefit from lower prices. Putting up tariffs to keep out these goods is not fair to consumers who have to pay higher prices. It is really a hidden tax on consumers which is especially tough for low-income people.
ARGUMENT AGAINST
While trade may be good for investors and high skilled workers, and can lower consumer prices, it comes at a great cost for many American workers and businesses. As the US market has been opened up to cheap imports from low-wage countries, this has undercut American companies producing the same products, driving them out of business and throwing employees out of work. This also encourages American companies to move to other countries to access low-wage workers, putting more Americans out of work.

SECOND ARGUMENT IN FAVOR
When trade barriers are lower, this makes it more possible for American companies to sell their products in foreign markets. International trade has been a major growth area for the US economy and has boosted US output by more than a trillion dollars a year. Many of the products that the US sells abroad--like hi tech or heavy industrial goods—are ones that the US is particularly good at making. If US companies were more restricted to the US, these strong US companies would be producing much less and hiring fewer workers.

SECOND ARGUMENT AGAINST
When other countries have access to US markets their companies can undercut our domestic companies because some of these companies are from countries with lower costs because they have weak labor and environmental standards. As a result, some US companies cannot compete and end up going out of business. These companies are often smaller, local ones and, when they close, this can devastate a community.

THIRD ARGUMENT IN FAVOR
When the US can sell products abroad this creates many jobs for Americans. In 2022, exports of goods and services supported an estimated 10.2 million US jobs all across the country. And these are good jobs because our exports tend to focus on products that command a high price abroad. Research shows that export-oriented industries pay 10-16% more than other jobs and this is especially true for blue-collar jobs. If we were to slow down trade, many people would be thrown out of work.

THIRD ARGUMENT AGAINST
If our economy becomes very dependent on international trade we have the potential to lose our independence and sovereignty. When we buy a lot of our products from other countries and stop producing those goods here, those countries can threaten to withhold the products we need. Furthermore, we should not be part of an international system in which foreigners judge whether we are following the rules or not. We need to maintain our independence to pursue our interests as we see fit.

FOURTH ARGUMENT IN FAVOR
Trade has been essential to growing economies around the world, and this growth has in turn helped lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. When a country opens up its economy, it expands the amount of markets available to its businesses which gives them more customers to sell to, allowing them to grow and hire more people. Also, more imports lowers the price of common products, which means a person’s wages will go farther. Studies have found that reductions in tariffs have decreased poverty rates.

FOURTH ARGUMENT AGAINST
Free trade policies pushed by the US have allowed international corporations to go into developing countries and exploit them. They seek out countries where labor standards are low or nonexistent, and they may even use children or forced labor. International corporations also seek out countries that will let them pollute the environment so as to keep their production costs low.

Aggregated Demographics of Swing Six States

Across-the-board tariffs of 10-20 Percent

Respondents evaluated a proposal to impose tariffs of 10-20 percent on imports from all countries, including arguments that these higher tariffs would: generate substantial government revenue and thus allow for reductions in taxes; and stimulate US manufacturing and lead to better-paying jobs. They also evaluated arguments against, that raising all tariffs would: violate US trade agreements and likely cause the US’ biggest trading partners to retaliate with tariff increases; and raise consumer prices for everyone. While the arguments in favor of raising all tariffs were found convincing by majorities of around two-thirds, including majorities of Democrats and Republicans, the arguments against were found convincing by larger bipartisan majorities of around three-quarters.

Finally, asked which policy they prefer, less than half in all six swing states (28-35%) support the US raising tariffs on imports from all countries to 10-20 percent, including just 34-42% Republicans and 20-34% Democrats. Instead, large majorities prefer the US continuing to have low tariffs on a mutual basis with other countries, provided they abide by agreed-upon rules (64-71%), including majorities of Republicans (57-65%) and Democrats (66-77%). Nationally, 68% prefer continuing the current policy of low tariffs (Republicans 60%, Democrats 77%).

The preference of respondents who say they will vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming election is highly similar to Republicans in general: 55-61% of Trump voters in the swing states prefer the US continuing with the system of mutually low tariffs, as do 58% of Trump voters nationally. ‘

Responses to Pro and Con Arguments

ARGUMENT IN FAVOR
Raising tariffs across the board will protect US businesses from cheap foreign goods and bring back good paying jobs. The US had high tariffs for most of its history, and that is what enabled us to become a manufacturing powerhouse. But politicians let countries with cheap labor take over these industries, because they cared more about low consumer prices and free trade than the American working class. It is time for a change.

ARGUMENT AGAINST
Increasing our tariffs at least five-fold is a direct attack on our allies and biggest trading partners, who have not violated any trade rules. It will undermine the international system of trade. Other countries will surely retaliate and raise their tariffs on our products, harming US companies that export, a major driver of the US economy. This will lead to massive layoffs. After the stock market crash in 1929, tariffs were raised by 20%, which most economists say was a major contributor to the Great Depression. Let’s not make that mistake again.SECOND ARGUMENT IN FAVOR
Raising all tariffs to 10-20% will generate hundreds of billions in new revenues for the Federal government.
This will be a boon to Americans. It will make it possible to reduce income taxes significantly, giving Americans more money to spend. This will help American businesses to sell more products, creating more jobs, and growing the economy.

SECOND ARGUMENT AGAINST
It is important to remember that all of that extra revenue does not come from other countries. Tariffs are taxes paid entirely by US businesses that import products. Those extra costs will be passed on to American consumers. Economists estimate that raising tariffs by so much would increase costs for families substantially, by $1,000 to $2,000 a year.
This will hurt low- and middle-income households the most. It is magical thinking to assume that tariffs are a free lunch.

Aggregated Demographics of Swing Six States

High Tariffs on china

Respondents were informed that in 2018, in response to alleged violations of international trade rules by China, the US started substantially increasing its tariffs on Chinese products to about 20% on average and that China retaliated with similarly high tariffs on the US. Bipartisan majorities in every swing state favor the US continuing to impose such tariffs on Chinese imports (69-78%), including majorities of Republicans (75-78%) and Democrats (67-82%). Nationally, 71% are in favor, with no difference between Republicans (73%) and Democrats (72%).

Responses to Pro and Con Arguments

ARGUMENT IN FAVOR
China has been blatantly violating international trade rules, and the US has been correct to take action against them, consistent with international rules for trade.
These tariffs have also helped to counter Chinese dumping by effectively raising the price of Chinese imports, thus helping boost US manufacturing.

ARGUMENT AGAINST
These tariffs have been completely ineffective at changing China’s behavior. All they have done is raise prices for US consumers. US businesses have also been hurt by China raising tariffs in retaliation. We need to pursue other ways of changing China’s behavior that don’t also hurt the US economy.

Aggregated Demographics of Swing Six States

labor and environmental standards in us trade deals

The US in its trade deal negotiations has been increasingly pushing for the inclusion of enforceable labor and environmental standards. Respondents were informed that such standards in trade agreements are meant to ensure that trade partners cannot get a competitive advantage by having significantly lower standards than the US. They also evaluated arguments against, including that the US should not try to impose standards on other countries, and that including too many provisions will slow down trade deals.

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable labor standards – including a prohibition on child labor and the right of workers to collectively bargain – bipartisan majorities of 81-87% in the swing states are in favor (Republicans 79-85%, Democrats 89-93%). Nationally, 82% are in favor (Republicans 77%, Democrats 90%).

Responses to Pro and Con Arguments

ARGUMENT IN FAVOR
Making sure that each country has a minimum level of labor standards that are actually being enforced, levels the playing field. We need to make sure that workers are treated with more dignity. No country should be able to get an economic advantage by mistreating their workers. Because of how international trade laws work, this is the best way of making sure that countries who have committed themselves to these labor standards actually enforce them.

ARGUMENT AGAINST
While trade may be good for investors and high skilled workers, and can lower consumer prices, it comes at a great cost for many American workers and businesses. As the US market has been opened up to cheap imports from low-wage countries, this has undercut American companies producing the same products, driving them out of business and throwing employees out of work.
This also encourages American companies to move to other countries to access low-wage workers, putting more Americans out of work.

Aggregated Demographics of Swing Six States

Asked whether the US should actively working to make agreements that include enforceable environmental standards–including that countries abide by the environmental agreements they have signed and do not lower their environmental standards to get a competitive edge – bipartisan majorities of 76-82% in the swing states are in favor (Republicans 70-76%, Democrats 83-89%). Nationally, 78% are in favor (Republicans 72%, Democrats 86%).

Responses to Pro and Con Arguments

ARGUMENT IN FAVOR
Having an actual system of enforcement for environmental standards that countries have agreed to is necessary to both protect the environment, and make sure countries don’t get a competitive edge from the lower costs that come from ignoring environmental standards. Trade should benefit everybody, but when the environment is destroyed to produce and transport more goods, it is the average citizen that suffers. Requiring countries to uphold environmental standards is not only good for the planet, it is good for America.

ARGUMENT AGAINST
The environment is a different issue from trade and should be dealt with separately. Adding too many rules to an agreement can overburden it and slow down the growth of trade. If countries signed on to an environmental agreement, then it should be up to them whether they want to live up to it or how. They should not be threatened with economic attacks if they want to go in another direction.

Aggregated Demographics of Swing Six States

about the survey

The survey was fielded September 9-22, 2024 with 4,675 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, including approximately 600 in each state of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and 1,260 nationally. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, home ownership, and partisan affiliation (nationally and in some states) to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the national sample is +/- 3.1%, and for the state samples it ranges from +/- 4.5 to 4.6%.

International Trade Questionnaire with Toplines, Crosstabs, and Methodology

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state survey reports

Arizona

In Arizona Majorities of Rs and Ds Oppose Raising Tariffs on All Imports to 10-20 Percent

Prefer Keeping Low Tariffs With Countries that Abide by Trade Rules,
While Keeping High Tariffs on China

As major proposals to change US international trade policy have come into the discourse, a new public consultation survey finds bipartisan majorities of Americans in Arizona, five other swing states, and nationally, support the US continuing to have low tariffs with other countries on a mutual basis so long as they abide by agreed-upon rules, rather than raising all tariffs to 10-20 percent.
At the same time, a bipartisan majority approves of the increased tariffs that have been imposed on China in response to their alleged violations of international trade rules.

This survey is the eighth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and nationally, on major policy issues by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland. Unlike standard polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.

Director of the Program for Public Consultation, Steven Kull, comments, “While Americans do support the tariff increases targeted at China, bipartisan majorities oppose a tariff increase on imports from all countries.
Large bipartisan majorities support the US continuing to be part of the international agreements for low tariffs within a rules-based system.” [More Detailed Report]

Support for Continuing International Trade System of Low Tariffs
Respondents were informed that, since World War II, the US has been actively working to promote international trade through a system in which countries negotiate to lower their tariffs on a mutual basis, provided each country abides by agreed-upon rules. The US has such trade arrangements with almost all countries – through free trade agreements and the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs. As a result, average tariffs globally have decreased from about 22% in the 1940’s to about 2% today.

A bipartisan majority in Arizona approves of the US working with other countries to continue this system (83%), including 78% of Republicans and 93% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities of 80-85% approve, as does a bipartisan majority nationally (81%, Republicans 74%, Democrats 88%). [BAR GRAPH]

Opposition to Across-the-Board Tariffs of 10-20 Percent
Respondents evaluated a proposal to impose tariffs of 10-20 percent on imports from all countries, including arguments that these higher tariffs would: generate substantial government revenue and thus allow for reductions in taxes; and stimulate US manufacturing and lead to better-paying jobs. They also evaluated arguments against, that raising all tariffs would: violate US trade agreements and likely cause the US’ biggest trading partners to retaliate with tariff increases; and raise consumer prices for everyone. Arguments on both sides were found convincing by bipartisan majorities.

Finally, asked which policy they prefer, less than half in Arizona support the US raising tariffs on imports from all countries to 10-20 percent (32%), including just 38% of Republicans and 27% of Democrats. Instead, a large majority prefers the US continuing to have low tariffs on a mutual basis with other countries, provided they abide by agreed-upon rules (67%), including 60% of Republicans and 73% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities support that policy (64-71%), as does a bipartisan majority nationally (68%, Republicans 60%, Democrats 77%).

Support for High Tariffs on China
Respondents were informed that starting in 2018, in response to alleged violations of international trade rules by China, the US increased tariffs on Chinese products to an average of about 20 percent, and that China retaliated with similarly high tariffs on the US. A bipartisan majority in Arizona favors the US continuing to impose such tariffs on Chinese imports (72%), including 78% of Republicans and 69% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (69-78%), as are 71% nationally (Republicans 73%, Democrats 72%).

Support for Labor and Environmental Standards in US Trade Deals
The US in its trade deal negotiations has been increasingly pushing for the inclusion of enforceable labor and environmental standards. Respondents evaluated arguments that such standards ensure that trade partners cannot get a competitive advantage by having significantly lower standards than the US. They also evaluated arguments against, including that the US imposing standards on other countries and including too many provisions in trade deals will slow down international trade, which would hurt everyone.

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable labor standards –
including a prohibition on child labor and the right of workers to collectively bargain – a bipartisan majority in Arizona are in favor (85%), including 82% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (81-87%), as are 82% nationally (Republicans 77%, Democrats 90%). [BAR GRAPH]

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable environmental standards – which require countries to abide by environmental agreements they have signed, and not lower their standards to get a competitive edge – a bipartisan majority in Arizona are in favor (80%), including 74% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (76-82%), as are 78% nationally (Republicans 72%, Democrats 86%). [BAR GRAPH]

About the Survey
The Arizona survey was fielded September 9-22, 2024 with 601 adults in Arizona by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. The sample was pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, and home ownership to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the Arizona sample is +/- 4.5%.

Georgia

In Georgia Majorities of Rs and Ds OpposeRaising Tariffs on All Imports to 10-20 Percent

Prefer Keeping Low Tariffs With Countries that Abide by Trade Rules,
While Keeping High Tariffs on China

As major proposals to change US international trade policy have come into the discourse, a new public consultation survey finds bipartisan majorities of Americans in Georgia, five other swing states, and nationally, support the US continuing to have low tariffs with other countries on a mutual basis so long as they abide by agreed-upon rules, rather than raising all tariffs to 10-20 percent.
At the same time, a bipartisan majority approves of the increased tariffs that have been imposed on China in response to their alleged violations of international trade rules.

This survey is the eighth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and nationally, on major policy issues by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland. Unlike standard polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.

A bipartisan majority in Georgia approves of the US working with other countries to continue this system (82%), including 73% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities of 80-85% approve, as does a bipartisan majority nationally (81%, Republicans 74%, Democrats 88%). [BAR GRAPH]

Finally, asked which policy they prefer, less than half in Georgia support the US raising tariffs on imports from all countries to 10-20 percent (35%), including 42% of Republicans and 34% of Democrats. Instead, a majority prefers the US continuing to have low tariffs on a mutual basis with other countries, provided they abide by agreed-upon rules (64%), including 57% of Republicans and 66% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities support that policy (64-71%), as does a bipartisan majority nationally (68%, Republicans 60%, Democrats 77%).

Support for High Tariffs on China
Respondents were informed that starting in 2018, in response to alleged violations of international trade rules by China, the US increased tariffs on Chinese products to an average of about 20 percent, and that China retaliated with similarly high tariffs on the US. A bipartisan majority in Georgia favors the US continuing to impose such tariffs on Chinese imports (72%), including 76% of Republicans and 70% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (69-78%), as are 71% nationally (Republicans 73%, Democrats 72%).

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable labor standards –
including a prohibition on child labor and the right of workers to collectively bargain – a bipartisan majority in Georgia are in favor (86%), including 81% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (81-87%), as are 82% nationally (Republicans 77%, Democrats 90%). [BAR GRAPH]

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable environmental standards – which require countries to abide by environmental agreements they have signed, and not lower their standards to get a competitive edge – a bipartisan majority in Georgia are in favor (80%), including 75% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (76-82%), as are 78% nationally (Republicans 72%, Democrats 86%). [BAR GRAPH]

About the Survey
The Georgia survey was fielded September 9-22, 2024 with 618 adults in Georgia by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. The sample was pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, home ownership, and partisan affiliation to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the Georgia sample is +/- 4.5%.

About the Program for Public Consultation
The Program for Public Consultation (PPC) at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, develops and conducts public consultation surveys, seeking to improve democratic governance by consulting representative samples of citizens on key public policy issues. It shares its findings with officials in government, the media, other academics, and the general public.

Michigan

In Michigan Majorities of Rs and Ds Oppose Raising Tariffs on All Imports to 10-20 Percent

Prefer Keeping Low Tariffs With Countries that Abide by Trade Rules,
While Keeping High Tariffs on China

As major proposals to change US international trade policy have come into the discourse, a new public consultation survey finds bipartisan majorities of Americans in Michigan, five other swing states, and nationally, support the US continuing to have low tariffs with other countries on a mutual basis so long as they abide by agreed-upon rules, rather than raising all tariffs to 10-20 percent.
At the same time, a bipartisan majority approves of the increased tariffs that have been imposed on China in response to their alleged violations of international trade rules.

This survey is the eighth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and nationally, on major policy issues by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland. Unlike standard polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.

A bipartisan majority in Michigan approves of the US working with other countries to continue this system (80%), including 73% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities of 80-85% approve, as does a bipartisan majority nationally (81%, Republicans 74%, Democrats 88%). [BAR GRAPH]

Finally, asked which policy they prefer, less than half in Michigan support the US raising tariffs on imports from all countries to 10-20 percent (28%), including just 34% of Republicans and 23% of Democrats. Instead, a large majority prefers the US continuing to have low tariffs on a mutual basis with other countries, provided they abide by agreed-upon rules (71%), including 65% of Republicans and 76% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities support that policy (64-71%), as does a bipartisan majority nationally (68%, Republicans 60%, Democrats 77%).

Support for High Tariffs on China
Respondents were informed that starting in 2018, in response to alleged violations of international trade rules by China, the US increased tariffs on Chinese products to an average of about 20 percent, and that China retaliated with similarly high tariffs on the US. A bipartisan majority in Michigan favors the US continuing to impose such tariffs on Chinese imports (69%), including 78% of Republicans and 67% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (69-78%), as are 71% nationally (Republicans 73%, Democrats 72%).

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable labor standards –
including a prohibition on child labor and the right of workers to collectively bargain – a bipartisan majority in Michigan are in favor (82%), including 79% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (81-87%), as are 82% nationally (Republicans 77%, Democrats 90%). [BAR GRAPH]

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable environmental standards – which require countries to abide by environmental agreements they have signed, and not lower their standards to get a competitive edge – a bipartisan majority in Michigan are in favor (76%), including 70% of Republicans and 85% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (76-82%), as are 78% nationally (Republicans 72%, Democrats 86%). [BAR GRAPH]

About the Survey
The Michigan survey was fielded September 9-22, 2024 with 597 adults in Michigan by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. The sample was pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, home ownership, and partisan affiliation to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the Michigan sample is +/- 4.6%.

Nevada

In Nevada Majorities of Rs and Ds Oppose Raising Tariffs on All Imports to 10-20 Percent

Prefer Keeping Low Tariffs With Countries that Abide by Trade Rules,
While Keeping High Tariffs on China

As major proposals to change US international trade policy have come into the discourse, a new public consultation survey finds bipartisan majorities of Americans in Nevada, five other swing states, and nationally, support the US continuing to have low tariffs with other countries on a mutual basis so long as they abide by agreed-upon rules, rather than raising all tariffs to 10-20 percent.
At the same time, a bipartisan majority approves of the increased tariffs that have been imposed on China in response to their alleged violations of international trade rules.

This survey is the eighth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and nationally, on major policy issues by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland. Unlike standard polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.

A bipartisan majority in Nevada approves of the US working with other countries to continue this system (80%), including 76% of Republicans and 86% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities of 80-85% approve, as does a bipartisan majority nationally (81%, Republicans 74%, Democrats 88%). [BAR GRAPH]

Finally, asked which policy they prefer, less than half in Nevada support the US raising tariffs on imports from all countries to 10-20 percent (28%), including just 39% of Republicans and 20% of Democrats. Instead, a large majority prefers the US continuing to have low tariffs on a mutual basis with other countries, provided they abide by agreed-upon rules (69%), including 60% of Republicans and 77% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities support that policy (64-71%), as does a bipartisan majority nationally (68%, Republicans 60%, Democrats 77%).

Support for High Tariffs on China
Respondents were informed that starting in 2018, in response to alleged violations of international trade rules by China, the US increased tariffs on Chinese products to an average of about 20 percent, and that China retaliated with similarly high tariffs on the US. A bipartisan majority in Nevada favors the US continuing to impose such tariffs on Chinese imports (72%), including 75% of Republicans and 73% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (69-78%), as are 71% nationally (Republicans 73%, Democrats 72%).

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable labor standards –
including a prohibition on child labor and the right of workers to collectively bargain – a bipartisan majority in Nevada are in favor (81%), including 79% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (81-87%), as are 82% nationally (Republicans 77%, Democrats 90%). [BAR GRAPH]

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable environmental standards – which require countries to abide by environmental agreements they have signed, and not lower their standards to get a competitive edge – a bipartisan majority in Nevada are in favor (77%), including 76% of Republicans and 83% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (76-82%), as are 78% nationally (Republicans 72%, Democrats 86%). [BAR GRAPH]

About the Survey
The Nevada survey was fielded September 9-22, 2024 with 594 adults in Nevada by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. The sample was pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, and home ownership to match the general adult population. The sample was also weighted by partisan affiliation to match voter registration records obtained from the Nevada Secretary of State. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the Nevada sample is +/- 4.6%.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania Majorities of Rs and Ds Oppose Raising Tariffs on All Imports to 10-20 Percent

Prefer Keeping Low Tariffs With Countries that Abide by Trade Rules,
While Keeping High Tariffs on China

As major proposals to change US international trade policy have come into the discourse, a new public consultation survey finds bipartisan majorities of Americans in Pennsylvania, five other swing states, and nationally, support the US continuing to have low tariffs with other countries on a mutual basis so long as they abide by agreed-upon rules, rather than raising all tariffs to 10-20 percent.
At the same time, a bipartisan majority approves of the increased tariffs that have been imposed on China in response to their alleged violations of international trade rules.

This survey is the eighth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and nationally, on major policy issues by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland. Unlike standard polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.

A bipartisan majority in Pennsylvania approves of the US working with other countries to continue this system (81%), including 73% of Republicans and 88% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities of 80-85% approve, as does a bipartisan majority nationally (81%, Republicans 74%, Democrats 88%). [BAR GRAPH]

Finally, asked which policy they prefer, less than half in Pennsylvania support the US raising tariffs on imports from all countries to 10-20 percent (33%), including 41% of Republicans and 27% of Democrats. Instead, a large majority prefers the US continuing to have low tariffs on a mutual basis with other countries, provided they abide by agreed-upon rules (65%), including 57% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities support that policy (64-71%), as does a bipartisan majority nationally (68%, Republicans 60%, Democrats 77%).

Support for High Tariffs on China
Respondents were informed that starting in 2018, in response to alleged violations of international trade rules by China, the US increased tariffs on Chinese products to an average of about 20 percent, and that China retaliated with similarly high tariffs on the US. A bipartisan majority in Pennsylvania favors the US continuing to impose such tariffs on Chinese imports (78%), including 76% of Republicans and 82% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (69-78%), as are 71% nationally (Republicans 73%, Democrats 72%).

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable labor standards –
including a prohibition on child labor and the right of workers to collectively bargain – a bipartisan majority in Pennsylvania are in favor (87%), including 85% of Republicans and 91% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (81-87%), as are 82% nationally (Republicans 77%, Democrats 90%). [BAR GRAPH]

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable environmental standards – which require countries to abide by environmental agreements they have signed, and not lower their standards to get a competitive edge – a bipartisan majority in Pennsylvania are in favor (82%), including 75% of Republicans and 89% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (76-82%), as are 78% nationally (Republicans 72%, Democrats 86%). [BAR GRAPH]

About the Survey
The Pennsylvania survey was fielded September 9-22, 2024 with 612 adults in Pennsylvania by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. The sample was pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, and home ownership to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the Pennsylvania sample is +/- 4.5%.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin Majorities of Rs and Ds Oppose Raising Tariffs on All Imports to 10-20 Percent

Prefer Keeping Low Tariffs With Countries that Abide by Trade Rules,
While Keeping High Tariffs on China

As major proposals to change US international trade policy have come into the discourse, a new public consultation survey finds bipartisan majorities of Americans in Wisconsin, five other swing states, and nationally, support the US continuing to have low tariffs with other countries on a mutual basis so long as they abide by agreed-upon rules, rather than raising all tariffs to 10-20 percent.
At the same time, a bipartisan majority approves of the increased tariffs that have been imposed on China in response to their alleged violations of international trade rules.

This survey is the eighth in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and nationally, on major policy issues by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland. Unlike standard polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance. All Americans are invited to go through the same policymaking simulation as the survey sample.

A bipartisan majority in Wisconsin approves of the US working with other countries to continue this system (85%), including 76% of Republicans and 93% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities of 80-85% approve, as does a bipartisan majority nationally (81%, Republicans 74%, Democrats 88%). [BAR GRAPH]

Finally, asked which policy they prefer, less than half in Wisconsin support the US raising tariffs on imports from all countries to 10-20 percent (32%), including 41% of Republicans and 25% of Democrats. Instead, a large majority prefers the US continuing to have low tariffs on a mutual basis with other countries, provided they abide by agreed-upon rules (68%), including 59% of Republicans and 74% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities support that policy (64-71%), as does a bipartisan majority nationally (68%, Republicans 60%, Democrats 77%).

Support for High Tariffs on China
Respondents were informed that starting in 2018, in response to alleged violations of international trade rules by China, the US increased tariffs on Chinese products to an average of about 20 percent, and that China retaliated with similarly high tariffs on the US. A bipartisan majority in Wisconsin favors the US continuing to impose such tariffs on Chinese imports (74%), including 75% of Republicans and 74% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (69-78%), as are 71% nationally (Republicans 73%, Democrats 72%).

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable labor standards –
including a prohibition on child labor and the right of workers to collectively bargain – a bipartisan majority in Wisconsin are in favor (87%), including 81% of Republicans and 93% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (81-87%), as are 82% nationally (Republicans 77%, Democrats 90%). [BAR GRAPH]

Asked whether the US should actively work to make agreements that include enforceable environmental standards – which require countries to abide by environmental agreements they have signed, and not lower their standards to get a competitive edge – a bipartisan majority in Wisconsin are in favor (81%), including 73% of Republicans and 88% of Democrats. Across all swing states, bipartisan majorities are in favor (76-82%), as are 78% nationally (Republicans 72%, Democrats 86%). [BAR GRAPH]

About the Survey
The Wisconsin survey was fielded September 9-22, 2024 with 592 adults in Wisconsin by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. The sample was pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, home ownership, and partisan affiliation to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the Wisconsin sample is +/- 4.6%.