Stock Trading

In Six Swing States, Democrats and Republicans Agree Congress, SCOTUS, POTUS and VP Should Not Trade Stocks

Overwhelming bipartisan majorities support a prohibition on stock trading by Congress, the Supreme Court, President and Vice President in the six swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, as well as nationally, a new public consultation survey by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) finds.

This survey is the second in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states on major policies. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance.

Legislation to prohibit any stock trading in individual companies among Members of Congress was first introduced in 2022, and has been reintroduced every year since, as has legislation prohibiting stock trading by Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President. Under the proposals, officials would still be able to buy and sell shares in large portfolios, like mutual funds, and retain their existing stocks if put in an independently managed fund, known as a blind trust. The ban would also apply to live-in family members.

Prohibit Members of Congress from trading stocks

Prohibiting Members of Congress and their live-in family from trading individual stocks is favored by 71% to 76% in the swing states, including 68% to 76% of Republicans and 76% to 85% of Democrats, as well as 72% nationally.

FIRST ARGUMENT IN FAVOR:
"There are too many potential conflicts of interest when Members of Congress can hold and trade stocks in individual companies. Members often take actions that significantly affect companies and industries, which they may have stocks in. Banning stock trading would give the public greater trust that their officials are serving the interest of the nation, not their own wallet. This is an easy way to prevent corruption and restore trust in government."







FIRST ARGUMENT AGAINST:
"This proposed legislation is not necessary. We already have laws against insider trading, and Members of Congress can be investigated and charged just like anyone else. Plus, there’s already a law that requires Members of Congress to report all their stock trades, so everyone can see what they are doing. Since that law was passed, a major study found that Members don’t do any better in the stock market than the general public. Clearly, the law is working as intended and no more is needed." 

SECOND ARGUMENT IN FAVOR:
"The laws we have now are not enough. It’s very difficult to prove insider trading, and it’s even harder when the only people who know the private information that Members are getting are other high-level officials. And even if insider trading is rare, it’s better to be safe and ban such stock trading. the public needs to know that Members could never use their position of power to gain an advantage."

SECOND ARGUMENT AGAINST:
"These restrictions could deter many good people from becoming Members, especially people from the business community. Having to sell stocks or put them in a blind trust could cost them a significant amount of money or lose key opportunities. A person should not be banned from participating fully in the market just because of the job they have."

Prohibit the President, VP and Supreme Court Justices from trading stocks

Prohibiting the President, Vice President, and Supreme Court Justices, and their live-in family, from trading individual stocks is favored by 72% to 77% in the swing states, including 68% to 74% of Republicans and 77% to 84% of Democrats, as well as 74% nationally.

Americans of all political stripes have great concerns about potential conflicts of interest and self-serving decisions on the part of policymakers.

Steven Kull, Director, Program for Public Consultation

Presented pro and con arguments, the most popular argument was that there are, “too many potential conflicts of interest when Members of Congress can hold and trade stocks in individual companies,” with 83% to 88% finding it convincing in the swing states. 

The con arguments did not do as well, with just 42% to 51% in the swing states finding convincing the argument that this new law is not necessary, since “we already have laws against insider trading, and Members of Congress can be investigated and charged just like anyone else.”

Congressional Stock Trading Questionnaire with Toplines, Crosstabs and Methodology
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Congressional Stock Trading

STATE SURVEY REPORTS

In Arizona, Democrats and Republicans Agree Congress, SCOTUS, POTUS and VP Should Not Trade Stocks

Overwhelming bipartisan majorities of Arizona residents support a prohibition on stock trading by Congress, the Supreme Court, President and Vice President, a new public consultation survey by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) finds. 

This survey is the second in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states on major policies. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance.

Legislation to prohibit any stock trading in individual companies among Members of Congress was first introduced in 2022, and has been reintroduced every year since, as has legislation prohibiting stock trading by Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President. Under the proposals, officials would still be able to buy and sell shares in large portfolios, like mutual funds, and retain their existing stocks if put in an independently managed fund, known as a blind trust. The ban would also apply to live-in family members.

Prohibiting Members of Congress and their live-in family from trading individual stocks is favored by 75% in Arizona, including 76% of Republicans and 76% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 71% to 76%, with national support at 72%. 
Prohibiting Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President, and their live-in family, from trading individual stocks is favored by 75% in Arizona, including 74% of Republicans and 78% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 72% to 77%, with national support at 74%. 
Director of the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation, Steven Kull, noted, “Americans of all political stripes have great concerns about potential conflicts of interest and self-serving decisions on the part of policymakers.” 

Presented pro and con arguments, the most popular argument was that there are, “too many potential conflicts of interest when Members of Congress can hold and trade stocks in individual companies,” with 85% of residents finding it convincing in Arizona. 

The con arguments did not do as well, with just 45% in Arizona finding convincing the argument that this new law is not necessary, since “we already have laws against insider trading, and Members of Congress can be investigated and charged just like anyone else.”

An Arizona respondent elaborated on their views, “Federal officials are often key decision makers that can affect whether a business succeeds or fails. They should not stand to gain financially from the decisions they make.”

About the Survey
The Arizona survey was fielded July 10-19, 2024 to a representative non-probability sample of 610 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online non-probability panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, ethnicity, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, home ownership, and partisan affiliation. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval is +/- 4.5%.


Georgia Democrats and Republicans Agree Congress, SCOTUS, POTUS and VP Should Not Trade Stocks

Overwhelming bipartisan majorities of Georgia residents support a prohibition on stock trading by Congress, the Supreme Court, President and Vice President, a new public consultation survey by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) finds.

This survey is the second in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states on major policies. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance.

Legislation to prohibit any stock trading in individual companies among Members of Congress was first introduced in 2022, and has been reintroduced every year since, as has legislation prohibiting stock trading by Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President. Under the proposals, officials would still be able to buy and sell shares in large portfolios, like mutual funds, and retain their existing stocks if put in an independently managed fund, known as a blind trust. The ban would also apply to live-in family members.

Prohibiting Members of Congress and their live-in family from trading individual stocks is favored by 75% in Georgia, including 75% of Republicans and 79% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 71% to 76%, with national support at 72%. 
Prohibiting Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President, and their live-in family, from trading individual stocks is favored by 72% in Georgia, including 71% of Republicans and 78% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 72% to 77%, with national support at 74%. 
Director of the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation, Steven Kull, noted, “Americans of all political stripes have great concerns about potential conflicts of interest and self-serving decisions on the part of policymakers.” 

Presented pro and con arguments, the most popular argument was that there are, “too many potential conflicts of interest when Members of Congress can hold and trade stocks in individual companies,” with 87% of residents finding it convincing in Georgia. 

The con arguments did not do as well, with just 51% in Georgia finding convincing the argument that this new law is not necessary, since “we already have laws against insider trading, and Members of Congress can be investigated and charged just like anyone else.”

A Georgia respondent elaborated on their views, “Americans would trust their officials more if the possibility of insider trading was restricted.”

About the Survey
The Georgia survey was fielded July 10-19, 2024 to a representative non-probability sample of 617 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online non-probability panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, ethnicity, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, and home ownership. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval is +/- 4.5%.


Michigan Democrats and Republicans Agree Congress, SCOTUS, POTUS and VP Should Not Trade Stocks

Overwhelming bipartisan majorities of Michigan residents support a prohibition on stock trading by Congress, the Supreme Court, President and Vice President, a new public consultation survey by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) finds. 

This survey is the second in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states on major policies. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance.

Legislation to prohibit any stock trading in individual companies among Members of Congress was first introduced in 2022, and has been reintroduced every year since, as has legislation prohibiting stock trading by Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President. Under the proposals, officials would still be able to buy and sell shares in large portfolios, like mutual funds, and retain their existing stocks if put in an independently managed fund, known as a blind trust. The ban would also apply to live-in family members.

Prohibiting Members of Congress and their live-in family from trading individual stocks is favored by 75% in Michigan, including 74% of Republicans and 81% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 71% to 76%, with national support at 72%. 
Prohibiting Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President, and their live-in family, from trading individual stocks is favored by 74% in Michigan, including 72% of Republicans and 79% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 72% to 77%, with national support at 74%. 
Director of the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation, Steven Kull, noted, “Americans of all political stripes have great concerns about potential conflicts of interest and self-serving decisions on the part of policymakers.” 

Presented pro and con arguments, the most popular argument was that there are, “too many potential conflicts of interest when Members of Congress can hold and trade stocks in individual companies,” with 83% of residents finding it convincing in Michigan. 

The con arguments did not do as well, with just 45% in Michigan finding convincing the argument that this new law is not necessary, since “we already have laws against insider trading, and Members of Congress can be investigated and charged just like anyone else.”

A Michigan respondent elaborated on their views, “Federal officials are servants to their communities. Our lives depend on the decisions they make. Those decisions should not be influenced by their own personal gain.”

About the SurveyThe Michigan survey was fielded July 10-19, 2024 to a representative non-probability sample of 627 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online non-probability panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, ethnicity, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status and home ownership. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval is +/- 4.4%.


Nevada Democrats and Republicans Agree Congress, SCOTUS, POTUS and VP Should Not Trade Stocks

Overwhelming bipartisan majorities of Nevada residents support a prohibition on stock trading by Congress, the Supreme Court, President and Vice President, a new public consultation survey by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) finds. 

This survey is the second in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states on major policies. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance.

Legislation to prohibit any stock trading in individual companies among Members of Congress was first introduced in 2022, and has been reintroduced every year since, as has legislation prohibiting stock trading by Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President. Under the proposals, officials would still be able to buy and sell shares in large portfolios, like mutual funds, and retain their existing stocks if put in an independently managed fund, known as a blind trust. The ban would also apply to live-in family members. 

Prohibiting Members of Congress and their live-in family from trading individual stocks is favored by 71% in Nevada, including 68% of Republicans and 77% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 71% to 76%, with national support at 72%. 
Prohibiting Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President, and their live-in family, from trading individual stocks is favored by 73% in Nevada, including 68% of Republicans and 77% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 72% to 77%, with national support at 74%.

Director of the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation, Steven Kull, noted, “Americans of all political stripes have great concerns about potential conflicts of interest and self-serving decisions on the part of policymakers.” 

Presented pro and con arguments, the most popular argument was that there are, “too many potential conflicts of interest when Members of Congress can hold and trade stocks in individual companies,” with 88% of residents finding it convincing in Nevada. 

The con arguments did not do as well, with just 45% in Nevada finding convincing the argument that this new law is not necessary, since “we already have laws against insider trading, and Members of Congress can be investigated and charged just like anyone else.”

A Nevada respondent elaborated on their views, “Our politicians should be working for us, not their own pocket books.”

About the Survey
The Nevada survey was fielded July 10-19, 2024 to a representative non-probability sample of 594 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online non-probability panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, ethnicity, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, and home ownership. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval is +/- 4.6%.


Pennsylvania Democrats and Republicans Agree Congress, SCOTUS, POTUS and VP Should Not Trade Stocks

Overwhelming bipartisan majorities of Pennsylvania residents support a prohibition on stock trading by Congress, the Supreme Court, President and Vice President, a new public consultation survey by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) finds. 

This survey is the second in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states on major policies. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance.

Legislation to prohibit any stock trading in individual companies among Members of Congress was first introduced in 2022, and has been reintroduced every year since, as has legislation prohibiting stock trading by Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President. Under the proposals, officials would still be able to buy and sell shares in large portfolios, like mutual funds, and retain their existing stocks if put in an independently managed fund, known as a blind trust. The ban would also apply to live-in family members.

Prohibiting Members of Congress and their live-in family from trading individual stocks is favored by 74% in Pennsylvania, including 70% of Republicans and 77% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 71% to 76%, with national support at 72%. 
Prohibiting Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President, and their live-in family, from trading individual stocks is favored by 74% in Pennsylvania, including 72% of Republicans and 79% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 72% to 77%, with national support at 74%.

Director of the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation, Steven Kull, noted, “Americans of all political stripes have great concerns about potential conflicts of interest and self-serving decisions on the part of policymakers.” 

Presented pro and con arguments, the most popular argument was that there are, “too many potential conflicts of interest when Members of Congress can hold and trade stocks in individual companies,” with 85% of residents finding it convincing in Pennsylvania. 

The con arguments did not do as well, with just 48% in Pennsylvania finding convincing the argument that this new law is not necessary, since “we already have laws against insider trading, and Members of Congress can be investigated and charged just like anyone else.”

A Pennsylvania respondent elaborated on their views, “Money is influential in a person's decision-making process. We do not need government officials basing their decisions on how it might impact their wealth and income.”

About the Survey
The Pennsylvania survey was fielded July 10-19, 2024 to a representative non-probability sample of 603 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online non-probability panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, ethnicity, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, home ownership, and partisan affiliation. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval is +/- 4.5%.


Wisconsin Democrats and Republicans Agree Congress, SCOTUS, POTUS and VP Should Not Trade Stocks

Overwhelming bipartisan majorities of Wisconsin residents support a prohibition on stock trading by Congress, the Supreme Court, President and Vice President, a new public consultation survey by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) finds.

This survey is the second in a series – the Swing Six Issue Surveys – being conducted in the run-up to the November election in six swing states on major policies. Unlike traditional polls, respondents in a public consultation survey go through an online “policymaking simulation” in which they are provided briefings and arguments for and against each policy. Content is reviewed by experts on different sides to ensure accuracy and balance.

Legislation to prohibit any stock trading in individual companies among Members of Congress was first introduced in 2022, and has been reintroduced every year since, as has legislation prohibiting stock trading by Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President. Under the proposals, officials would still be able to buy and sell shares in large portfolios, like mutual funds, and retain their existing stocks if put in an independently managed fund, known as a blind trust. The ban would also apply to live-in family members.

Prohibiting Members of Congress and their live-in family from trading individual stocks is favored by 76% in Wisconsin, including 72% of Republicans and 84% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 71% to 76%, with national support at 72%. 
Prohibiting Supreme Court Justices, the President and Vice President, and their live-in family, from trading individual stocks is favored by 77% in Wisconsin, including 72% of Republicans and 85% of Democrats. Support in the six swing states ranges from 72% to 77%, with national support at 74%.

Director of the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s Program for Public Consultation, Steven Kull, noted, “Americans of all political stripes have great concerns about potential conflicts of interest and self-serving decisions on the part of policymakers.” 

Presented pro and con arguments, the most popular argument was that there are, “too many potential conflicts of interest when Members of Congress can hold and trade stocks in individual companies,” with 85% of residents finding it convincing in Wisconsin. 

The con arguments did not do as well, with just 42% in Wisconsin finding convincing the argument that this new law is not necessary, since “we already have laws against insider trading, and Members of Congress can be investigated and charged just like anyone else.”

A Wisconsin respondent elaborated on their views, “Anyone in a position to regulate or pass laws concerning a company's future should not be allowed to trade shares in that company.”

About the Survey
The Wisconsin survey was fielded July 10-19, 2024 to a representative non-probability sample of 597 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy. Samples were obtained from multiple online non-probability panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, ethnicity, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, home ownership, and partisan affiliation. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval is +/- 4.6%.


ABOUT THE SURVEY

The survey was fielded July 10-19, 2024 with 4,647 adults by the Program for Public Consultation at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, including approximately 600 adults in each state of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (approximately 600 in each), and 1,195 nationally. Samples were obtained from multiple online opt-in panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege. Sample collection and quality control was managed by QuantifyAI under the direction of the Program for Public Consultation. Samples were pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, ethnicity, gender, education, income, metro/non-metro, marital status, home ownership, and partisan affiliation to match the general adult population. The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The confidence interval for the national sample is +/-3.2%, and for the state samples, it ranges from +/-4.4% to 4.6%.

Fielding and Sample Size
The national and state surveys were fielded to 4,647 adults online July 10 - July 19, 2024 by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, with representative non-probability samples obtained from multiple online  panels, including Cint, Dynata and Prodege.

The national sample is 1,195 adults, with a confidence interval of +/- 3.2%. The overall response rate was 8.15%

The state samples are as follows:

  • Arizona: 610
  • Georgia: 617
  • Michigan: 627
  • Nevada: 594
  • Pennsylvania: 603
  • Wisconsin: 597

State samples have confidence intervals that range from +/- 4.4% to 4.6%. Overall response rates ranged from 3.19% to 4.69%

Pre-Stratification and Weighting
Each sample was pre-stratified and weighted by age, race, ethnicity, gender, education, household income, metro/non-metro status, marital status and home ownership. National and state benchmarks came from the Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey and 2023 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement.

The national sample was also weighted by Census region, and partisan affiliation to ensure an equal distribution of Republicans and Democrats, including leaners. Some state samples were weighted by partisan affiliation to match party registration records, when available, or to ensure a roughly equal distribution of Republicans and Democrats, including leaners.

The maximum weights applied were:

  • National: 3.5
  • Arizona: 5.0
  • Georgia: 3.4
  • Michigan: 4.4
  • Nevada: 4.6
  • Pennsylvania: 4.4
  • Wisconsin: 3.6

Sample Collection
Sample collection was managed by QuantifyAI with oversight from PPC. Samples were drawn from multiple large online panels, including Cint, Prodege, and Dynata, whose members are recruited using non-probability sampling methods. The selected sample was invited to participate via email invitation, push notification, or SMS for cell phone users. Respondents were offered cash or cash-equivalent incentives to participate in the survey.

Data Collection and Privacy
Survey responses were collected directly on the Alchemer platform. Only respondents with a provided link could take the survey, using their computer or mobile phone.

Alchemer ensures that data is collected in adherence to the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation policies for data privacy and security, as well as the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA).

Quality Control
Quality control measures in the sample collection process to disqualify duplicate respondents and survey bots included:

  • checking respondents’ IP addresses to determine if there are duplicate respondents
  • employing an “operating system & Web browser check” to determine if there are any cross-panel duplicates
  • using hCaptcha to detect and disqualify survey bots.

Quality control measures within the survey to disqualify dishonest or mischievous respondents, as well as survey bots, included:

  • an attention-check question, e.g. Select the word that does not belong. [Tuesday]; [Friday]; [April]; [Wednesday]
  • an honesty question, e.g. What have you done in the past week? Select all that apply. [Won a gold medal at the Olympics]; [Watched TV]; [Got a license to operate a Class SSGN submarine]; [Read a book]
  • a speed limit, which disqualified respondents who moved through the first quarter of the survey at a pace roughly triple the average reading speed.

Lastly, respondents were removed from the sample who answered less than half the substantive questions, or who engaged in straight-lining.

Prohibit Members of Congress and live-in family from trading stocks


Prohibit the President, VP and Supreme Court Justices, and their live-in family, from trading stocks

Links to Past Surveys: